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Africa and the Crisis of Instability - Nations & States - Global Policy Forum Africa and the Crisis of Instability
By Okechukwu Emeh
Vanguard
March 30, 2004
Inter-state conflicts have added to the sources of violence and instability in Africa.In the 1960s, 70s and 80s, most of Africa was battling with the destabilising and debilitating forces of colonialism, neo-colonialism (imperialism), apartheid, the Cold War and political authoritarianism. With the disappearance of these centrifugal forces, except neo-colonialism and political authoritarianism, several African states have started to recover their souls and move towards normality.For example, while the Cold War inspired brutal armed conflicts in Southern Africa (Mozambique and Angola) and the Horn of Africa (between Ethiopia and Somalia) have ceased, the post-apartheid South Africa has made sufficient progress towards becoming the economic and techno-industrial powerhouse of sub-Saharan Africa. Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Niger, Benin Republic, Togo, Cote d'lvoire, Chad, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Cameroun, Gabon and others - though in some of these countries, the process of democratisation has been captured under the guise of competitive elections (sometimes bitter and divisive), by the authoritarian groups already in control of power.
Despite the hopes and dreams brought by the end of the Cold War and apartheid in Africa, the new era could as well be described as tumultuous times on the continent. Capturing this development that seems like taking one step forward and two steps back are the enduring dilemma of political, social, and economic crises in many African countries today. These crises include maladministration, political repression and instability, electoral fraud, virulent ethnic nationalism, religious fundamentalism, civil unrest, armed conflict, proliferation of illicit arms, violent crimes, economic crunch, famine, hunger, poverty, emerging and reemerging diseases (AIDS, Ebola, malaria and tuberculosis), environmental degradation and underdevelopment.
Somalia is a profile in the crisis of instability in contemporary Africa. Since after the popular upheaval that snowballed into the overthrow of the oppressive regime of Mohammed Siad Barre by various notorious clan warlords and their militias, this Horn of African state has been in turmoil and fragmented into self-recognised independent republics of Somaliland, Puntland and South West Somalia.
Today, due to the civil war, chaos, anarchy, bloodshed, horror, barbarism and devastation in Somalia, many watchers of African politics, including this writer, have seen the country as a clear indication of the extreme difficulty of state building in Africa. This is the only political society on the continent (that is, Somalia) which is a nation in the real sense of the word because of ethnic, religious and cultural homogeneity of her people, but yet, she is atomised across the fault line of clan. In the light of this, many Western analysts have come to associate Somalia with an egregious example of a failed state. When extrapolated and explained, the term depicts a polity where political, economic and social institutions have crumbled, as a result of longstanding and protracted crises like intra-state conflict, war, maladministration, corruption, mismanagement, economic distress, deepening poverty, violence, crime, social chaos, anarchy and so on.
Failed African States
Disturbingly, the scenario of a failed state presented by Somalia is being replicated by other Horn of African states, namely Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan, which are plagued by disastrous armed conflicts that have caused catastrophic breakdown of law and order and opened the floodgate of carnage, social dislocation, hunger and famine. Mindful of the political and communal turmoil of the recent years in Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African Republic, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote d' Ivoire and a host of others, one can surmise that these countries have the potentials of inching their way to the status of a failed state à la Somalia.
Rwanda and Burundi have been bogged down by the vicious cycle of revolt by Hutus and repression by Tutsis. In Rwanda, the communal feud led to the world-shaking genocide of April- June 1994, in which about 800,000 Tutsis, along with moderate Hutu politicians, were slaughtered by Hutu extremist militias (the lnterahamwe) and members of the former Hutu-led national army.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) is not immune to the widening battlefields in the Great Lakes or Central African region. At present, the country is recovering from a devastating civil war that ensued the violence and unrest that led to the downfall of the corrupt, despotic and tyrannical regime of Mobutu Sese Seko in May 1997. The war, seen as Africa's "First World War," on account of the involvement of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Angola and Sudan on the side of different groups in the country, claimed an estimated three million lives and depleted vast mineral resources there.
From the sombre and dire picture of catastrophic armed conflicts in Africa's Great Lakes region, one cannot dismiss suggestion that the pernicious ideologies of Hutu supremacy (or power) and Hima-Tutsi empire, which have found vent in the fierce communal rivalry in the putative states of Rwanda and Burundi, could have convulsive impact on the region and beyond. Noticeably, the seemingly intractable crisis has already spawned a culture of xenophobia, deep-seated resentment, extremism and ethnic cleansing in the neighbouring DR Congo, where the Banyamulenge (Tutsi of Rwandan extraction) who provided the bulk of the fighters that ousted the Mobutu regime in 1997, are restive.
In Congo's Northeastern ltuli region, the Hema and Lendu tribesmen have been entangled in mutual assured killings and destruction. Another anxiety over Hutu-Tutsi animosity is that the conflict in Rwanda and Burundi could seep into the laps of Uganda and Tanzania, which have a sizable population of the two antagonist ethnic nationalities as immigrants. So far, Uganda is struggling to contain the atrocious rebellion of the millennial cult guerrillas of the Joseph Kony-led Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which is operating in the North from Sudan. In Congo-Brazzaville and Central African Republic, the nefarious activities of heavily armed militia groups, supported by insurgents from DR Congo, have paralysed governments and institutions in the two countries, just as the insurrection of the rag tag rebels in the neighbouring Chad.
In Cote d'lvoire, formerly seen as a haven of peace and economic stability in the emerging volatile West Africa - as observed in the chaos and madness of the horrific civil wars of the recent past in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea Bissau - political intolerance, nationality question and xenophobia have ignited a divisive civil war.
There are valid fears that the potentially expensive crisis in that French-speaking country could have severe repercussion in other parts of the region if the fragile peace plans of ECOWAS and France aimed at defusing the problem hit the hurdle.
Nudging other states in Africa towards the precipice of a failed state is the new potential grave danger of religious extremism, which has gathered sheer momentum on the continent since the end of the East-West rivalry (the Cold War) in 1989. In Egypt and Algeria, wild bearded Islamic zealots with AK-47 assault rifles and bombs are waging vicious campaigns to wrest power from their secularist governments.
Kenya and Tanzania have become the centres of Al-Qaeda inspired anti-Western, anti- Israeli struggles in Africa, as buttressed by the spate of suicide bombings by hardline Islamic militants in the East African countries in the recent past.
Ethnic Nationalism
Ethnic/micro nationalism is also a potent force to reckon with in the crisis of instability in Africa. In this regard, Nigeria is, in recent years, becoming volatile, a kind of powder keg, on account of frequent nasty inter-ethnic and religious riots, fuelled by years of bubbling communal discontent and frustration across the country.
In Western Sahara, Sudan (in the South), Senegal (in Casamance), Angola (in Cabinda), Ethiopia (in Oromoland, Ogaden and Haud), Comoros (in Anjou an), Niger (in Agadez) and Mali (in Alawak), disaffected ethnic nationalities have been waging armed separatist struggles for autonomy or outright independence. In recent years, Namibia and Cameroun have increasingly become volatile since the beginning of the agitation for national self-determination by San people of the Caprivi Strip and English-speaking Camerounians respectively.
Inter-state conflicts have added to the sources of violence and instability in Africa. Such conflicts include the long time standoff between Nigeria and Cameroun over the oil-rich Bakassi Peninsula and the continued tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the Badme territory. Such conflict has often had the ominous implication of undermining African unity.
There is no question that political and social crises that inform the unfolding failed state syndrome in Africa are partly responsible for afro-pessimism, the notion by western scholars and commentators that the future of the continent is bleak, gloomy and depressing because of multiple and endless crises. Karl Maier, in his book Midnight in Nigeria , This house has fallen, has captured such pessimism, painting a gory picture of the uphill task of nation- building in Nigeria, bedevilled by a medley of political, ethnic and religious turbulence.
In a similar vein, Robert D. Kaplan, in his widely read but controversial essay The Coming Anarchy (1994), has gazed into the crystal ball and predicted the fragility of many African states because of political and social chaos and instability. Currently, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Malawi, Togo and Guinea encapsulate such grave assumptions of doom and gloom about the continent, considering the dire prospects of political and social implosions in these countries due to creeping dictatorship and violation of the basic tenets of democracy and constitutionality. In South Africa, despite the routing of the tangential forces of apartheid, the subversive rise of white Afrikaner nationalism, under the aegis of the Boeremag (or Warriors of the Boer Nation) and Zulu militancy, reminiscent of those of the 1980s and early 1990s, has ignited fears about the return of the terrible racial tension and divisions of the apartheid years.
Economically, the outlooks for some of the African states are bleak, as some of them are being relegated in international finance and trade of the post-Cold War era, as well as in the emerging order of globalisation and information and communication technology (ICT).
Oddly enough, except, to some extent, South Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Botswana, Mauritius, Senegal and Uganda, the economies of many political configurations on the continent are not dynamic and booming.
Efforts to combine the requirements of Western-induced reforms with the demands of democratisation in some of the countries have also met a brick wall. Worse still, the United States and countries of the European Union (EU) have been tempted to reduce their level of official development aids for African states because of doubts about their efficacy, and this is more so in the post-East-West rivalry when Russia is no longer a diplomatic player in Africa. Consequently, loans and grants by these Western countries to African states are tied to conditions like inauguration of Western style democracy and market reforms, human rights and support for "war on terror" -- a situation that has impinged on the national sovereignties of such states.
Not helping matters are the literal kleptocracies in some African states, which, sometimes, have taken the form of a veritable economy of loot and plunder of Mobutuesque proportions. And this development has contributed to serious problems of sluggish economy, debt overhang, human suffering, social unrest and political quagmire in some of the states, especially those in the sub-Saharan Africa.
In the face of the unmitigated political, social and economic crises and woes that have made many African countries to face uncertain future, the immediate task before African leaders is how to use the opportunities offered by the end of the destabilising Cold War and apartheid to confront the harsh realities of independence, reinvent their national entities and satisfy the welfare demands of law, social justice, peaceful coexistence, economic reconstruction, human welfare and African brotherhood. Interestingly, former President Nelson Mandela (the Madiba) of South Africa and his successor, Mr. Thabo Mbeki, are today championing the 'idea of African renaissance, a project of renewal to bring the continent 'back from the brink, strengthen its possibilities, raise hope and optimism and reposition it as an important centre of human civilisation.
Therefore, there is a growing sense of urgency to transform the failed' states' of Somalia and DR. Congo into stabilised, modernised and pro-active states, guided by justice, peace, security and development. The same is required from other war-subsidies.
Coupled with the AU's agenda for federal African state, conflict resolution, peace building, security, good governance, human rights, the rule of law and sustainable development, there is hope that, with commitment, courage and dedication, a stable Africa will emerge out of the chaos and rubbles of crises. No doubt, the pressure and onus for the realisation of these Afro- optimistic expectations are on African leaders and the stake is too high for them to fail in helping provide certainty and stability to the distraught continent.
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